CEO Survey: As economic outlook brightens, global uncertainty casts a shadow

CEOs are entering 2025 with renewed optimism. Their outlook on economic conditions has improved for the third consecutive year, and they’re looking ahead to bold strategies with a focus on organic growth, product investment, and continued AI exploration. But this forward-looking approach stands in contrast with rising concerns about geopolitical instability, and trade policies and their impact on international relations.

Here’s a deeper dive into how CEOs are balancing optimism with the realities of a complex global landscape as they set their sights on 2025. Explore the full survey results, segmented by region, sector, and stage, on Sōzō Pulse.

For the third year in a row, CEOs’ optimism about the economy has increased, with 63% more optimistic about the state of the economy compared to a year ago. In 2023, 49% of CEOs were more optimistic, and in 2022 6%.

“This sustained increase in CEO optimism reflects a growing confidence in the resilience of the global economy,” says Alex Clavel, CEO of SoftBank Vision Funds. “Leaders who weathered the turmoil of recent years have emerged stronger and are ready to seize new opportunities to innovate and drive success.” 

As economic indicators have turned positive, the percentage of CEOs who say they are less optimistic than a year ago has dwindled to just 5%, down from 26% in 2023, and 80% in 2022. 

This dramatic change is “understandable,” says Olaf J. Groth of the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. “Very clear messages have been sent on the tax front, and there’s the promise of deregulation,” Groth says. “That’s music to CEO ears. Markets and investors love certainty. And when investors love certainty, CEOs love certainty.” 

Erkin Adylov, CEO of Behavox, a leading provider of AI-powered archiving, compliance, and security solutions based in London, agrees. “I’m mildly optimistic about 2025,” he says, “and certainly more than I was about 2024, when I was more optimistic than 2023.” 

The growth in optimism is mirrored by shifts in how CEOs are running their companies. For example, just 35% of CEOs said 2025 was a year to conserve cash and stabilize their businesses, down from 67% two years ago, when access to startup capital was more difficult. For Adylov, “the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to continue its loose monetary policy is good news.” As a result, he says, “it makes sense to invest cash in 2025: if the macro is good and customers are spending, you probably want to capitalize on that.”

With fewer concerns about conserving cash, 62% of CEOs say 2025 is a year for organic growth, 38% for investing aggressively in product, and 36% for expanding into new product offerings. 

Not surprisingly, when it comes to investments, AI features prominently. Behavox is a case in point. The company recently launched new archiving services to complement its communication surveillance for financial services firms. “Our substantial investments in AI have put us in an enviable position,” Adylov says. “We have our own large language model (LLM), specifically trained for financial services — and it’s fully transparent. You can even come in and inspect the data sets behind it.” 

Because AI is such a game-changer, Adylov adds, it’s easier to innovate than ever. Groth concurs, saying that he expects “we’ll continue to see AI spend” in 2025.

CEOs’ optimism about economic conditions is tempered by global instability that introduces a degree of uncertainty into their companies’ prospects. After a year of sudden political shifts in major economies ranging from Brazil, France, and South Korea to the United Kingdom and the United States, and with ongoing wars continuing in Ukraine and the Middle East, 38% of CEOs said that geopolitical instability will have a major impact on their company in 2025, up from 26% a year ago. 

Groth says the impact is likely to be felt differently based on industry and geography. On a global scale, and especially if you work across spheres, “inefficiencies in supply chains could abound” due to trade barriers, labor shortages, or political conflicts. What’s more, “getting the right labor to the right places will likely become more difficult — but is the path to economies of scale.” 

For CEOs, the challenge will be to create efficiencies and build in buffers that will make their companies more resilient. “I recently spoke with a senior-level executive who was investing in big mega-factories in China, but is now shifting to a strategy of strings of micro-factories,” Groth says, using the term he coined to describe small, flexible production units within a global supply chain. Those micro-factories must be adaptable and leverage AI and data sharing, which can help enable real-time supply chain optimization or autonomous production, he says.

But not all CEOs are concerned about geopolitical risk. Adylov is among those who shrug off the risk. “If you look at the last 120 years of history and stock market performance, all geopolitical challenges — including WWII — have been brushed aside by the stock market,” he says. “When the news breaks it’s usually negative, but then the market tends to calibrate itself and continues in an upward trajectory.” 

Given the outsized role of the U.S. in the global economy, it’s not surprising that 69% of CEOs said they were concerned about the election’s impact on international relations and geopolitics, and 41% said they were concerned about its impact on trade policies and tariffs. A sharp rise in tariffs would likely affect “exporters of consumer goods and technology who won’t be able to absorb them,” Groth says. But the impacts could spread across the economy and “lead to lower demand and inflation,” he adds.

While politics undoubtedly affects business, experts have long debated whether CEOs should take public positions on policy and social issues, especially at a time of deep divisions. Most CEOs surveyed indicated they’re inclined to do so rarely and carefully. Just 5% said CEOs should speak out frequently on such issues, while 42% said they should never do so and always remain neutral. Meanwhile, 43% said CEOs should speak up on public policy issues only when they align with their company’s mission and values, 8% when they impact their employees, and 2% only when they align with their personal values. 

Adylov is among those who believe in keeping business away from politics. “I advise my senior leadership team to stay away from making political and social statements,” he says. “A business is an entity designed to deliver value to customers. It’s not really designed to promote social issues.” 

While CEOs are navigating geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic challenges, they remain focused on shaping the future of their organizations with a proactive approach, says Clavel. “CEOs are stepping forward with a clear vision and renewed confidence. Leaders are focusing on what they can control: building resilient organizations, delivering value to customers, and positioning their companies to thrive in a rapidly changing world.”