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CEO Pulse: As economic outlook brightens, global uncertainty casts a shadow

<p>For the past five years, CFOs of high-growth tech-driven companies have been forced to navigate adversity, uncertainty, and volatility. The headwinds came in quick succession: COVID-19, inflation, high-interest rates, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East that sparked geopolitical tensions, and tariffs and energy costs that fluctuated wildly. </p><p>The one countervailing force: an unprecedented wave of innovation, investment, and value creation that followed the launch of ChatGPT nearly five years ago. </p><p>To capitalize on the AI opportunity amid the turmoil, CFOs were compelled to be nimble and resilient, and to lean into technological and organizational innovation. For a group that prizes predictability above all, adaptability became a necessity.</p><p>“The tech and biotech companies that thrived over the past five years did so under challenging conditions,” says Mark Agne, executive managing partner of SoftBank Investment Advisers. “Extended periods of market and funding volatility made the job of the CFO, especially as it relates to planning, immensely more difficult. They’ve adapted by creating cultures that can react quickly to the unexpected.” </p><p>Following our fifth annual survey of CFOs at our <a target="_blank" href="/portfolio">portfolio companies</a>, we take stock not only of current conditions but also of how fluctuating macro economic forces have affected companies over the past half decade, causing priorities to shift. Here’s a look at some of the challenges CFOs contended with and how they overcame them. Explore the full survey results, segmented by region, sector, and stage, on <a target="_blank" href="/sozo-pulse/cfo-survey-q2-2026?q=1">Sōzō Pulse</a>.<br></p>

<h2>No rose-colored glasses on the economy</h2><p>Throughout the turbulent 2021–2026 period, optimism was a rare commodity, as macro conditions created no shortage of worrying economic signals. In every year’s survey except 2024, when inflation ebbed in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, CFOs who were pessimistic about the global economy outnumbered those who were optimistic. </p><p>It’s not surprising that CFOs were especially circumspect, says Jack McCullough, founder and president of the CFO Leadership Council. “CFOs, by their nature, tend to be cautious,” he says. “It’s in their job description, as they are the ones responsible for managing risk.” </p><p>While founders and CEOs tend to see only opportunity, CFOs are expected to focus on warning signs. “You want them to be a bit more pessimistic and bring some balance into the conversation,” McCullough adds.</p><p>This year, however, optimism among CFOs increased, with <strong>30% </strong>of respondents saying they feel optimistic about the economy compared to a year ago. This is up from 19% a year ago<strong> </strong>and trails only the peak of 52% reached in 2024. While optimists were still outnumbered by those who were pessimistic (<strong>53%</strong>),<strong> </strong>the uptick in sentiment among CFOs came despite ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and an unpredictable tariff regime in the United States. </p><p>The rising optimism is likely linked to massive investments in AI and technology infrastructure, which have contributed to economic growth in the U.S. and around the globe. And it is bolstered by the growing number of CFOs who have achieved <a target="_blank" href="/insights/cfo-survey-2026-insights">positive returns</a> from their own AI investments. </p><p></p><h4>Sentiment about the economy compared to a year ago</h4>

<h2>Defying predictions of a recession</h2><p>In recent years, CFOs have also been bearish about their domestic economies. Expectations for a recession, either a mild one or a strong one, have vastly outpaced more rosy scenarios, such as a soft landing or a rebound — though once again, 2024 bucked that trend. </p><p>But, those negative expectations haven’t fully materialized. While a few major economies, notably Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom, experienced recessions over the past few years, much of the rest of the world did not — not the U.S., nor most of the Eurozone, Brazil, India, or Southeast Asian nations.</p><p>So, while fears of a recession remain high (<strong>43%</strong>)<strong> </strong>in our 2026 survey, there’s reason to hope things may not be as bad as CFOs expect. That doesn’t mean it will be smooth sailing. Expectations for continued uncertainty remain high, with <strong>55% </strong>of respondents saying they expect<strong> </strong>volatile conditions to persist.</p><p></p><h4>Predictions about the economy in their country over the next 12 months </h4>

<h2>A shifting landscape</h2><p>While <a target="_blank" href="/insights/ceo-survey-entering-2026-resilience-in-uncertainty">uncertainty and volatility</a> have become entrenched in recent years, the forces fueling that turmoil have shifted. CFOs entered the AI era preoccupied by COVID, inflation, and employee retention. But as interest rates stabilized, new issues took center stage. </p><p>“If you ask CFOs what superpower they’d like to have, most will say it’s the ability to see around corners,” McCullough says. “They love predictability, and the current environment is deeply frustrating for them.” </p><p>In this year’s survey, generative AI and geopolitical issues topped the list of forces CFOs believe will impact their companies — presumably in positive ways — going forward, with <strong>58% </strong>citing the former and <strong>42% </strong>citing the latter.</p><p></p><h4>Factors that will have impact on companies</h4>

<h4>Additional factors, measured since 2024</h4>

<h2>Adaptability and agility</h2><p>As risks and opportunities shifted, so did CFO priorities. Coming out of the pandemic, with inflation in the U.S. at a decades-old peak, preserving cash was paramount. But as lockdowns faded in the rearview mirror and interest rates stabilized, CFOs adapted quickly, loosening the purse strings. This year, reflecting the rise in optimism, conserving cash was cited as a priority by just <strong>26% </strong>of CFOs, down from 54% a year ago. </p><p>While quickly shifting priorities helped companies weather risks, the <a target="_blank" href="/insights/cfo-survey-2026-insights">increased use of AI</a> by CFOs for core functions like scenario planning and forecasting may have helped companies be more nimble. </p><p>“When uncertainty is higher, there is greater premium on smart and strategic decision making,” says Michael Useem, an emeritus professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “The first measure of a risk-prepared manager is to understand the future by looking at the past, and AI is a wonderful tool for that.”</p><p>Throughout this turbulent period, what never faltered was companies’ focus on product innovation, the lifeblood of tech-driven firms. Between 2021 and 2026, investments in new offerings either increased or remained steady, while organic growth remained a top priority for most CFOs. This year, <strong>56% </strong>of CFOs listed organic growth as a priority. </p><p></p><h4>The next 12 months is a time to:</h4>

<h2>Fundraising challenges</h2><p>With the macroeconomic picture in turmoil, the fundraising environment for tech-driven companies has remained challenging in recent years. With the exception of 2024, when capital flowed a bit more freely, more CFOs said raising funds had become harder year-on-year than those who said it had become easier.  </p><p>Those challenges didn’t deter CFOs, who managed to keep their companies’ own fundraising plans steady. This year, nearly half of companies told us they plan to raise capital in the next 12 months, with <strong>28%</strong> saying they would do it through equity, and <strong>18% </strong>through a mix of debt and equity. </p><p></p><h4>Access to capital compared to the prior year</h4>

<h4>Plans to raise capital in the next 12 months</h4>

<h2>Key takeaway: The most important CEO relationship</h2><p>The unpredictability of the past five years has tested the leadership of tech-driven, entrepreneurial companies. Through market swings, geopolitical shocks, and rapid technological change, CFOs have emerged as an anchor, helping build organizational resilience and instill a mindset where nothing can surprise. In doing so, they have earned the trust and confidence of <a target="_blank" href="/sozo-pulse/q4-2025-ceo-survey-results">the CEO</a>.  </p><p>“CFOs have recognized that there will always be a crisis that they can’t predict,” says McCullough. “Knowing none of their scenarios may be right, they’ve helped to create resilient organizations that can shift priorities quickly.” Being at the forefront of managing uncertainty has turned CFOs into CEOs’ most important C-suite asset.</p><p>“The era when CFOs were just recording history and managing costs is long gone,” McCullough says. “Now the CFO is who the CEO turns to in a time of crisis. She’s the one they’ll talk to. She’s the one who will challenge their thinking.”</p>

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CFOs - Q2 2026

Survey insights: How tech CFOs are navigating economic uncertainty

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CFO Pulse: How tech innovators weathered five years of uncertainty

Resilience and agility became paramount in the face of volatility